A normal market price increase of 20% or more from the current price in Serbia will have an impact on the pg cable market
EPS was approved last year to raise electricity prices by nearly 10%, but did not implement it, according to Despotovic, chairman of the supervisory board of The Serbian Electricity company (EPS). Over the past few years EPS has been allowed to raise electricity prices by 5-7%, but only 2%. Right now, normal market electricity prices should be 20, 30, 40 percent or more higher than current prices.
Despotovic says electricity is not just an economic category, but a resource that needs to be saved, along with coal and water. That's why electricity prices need to be raised to warn people that they can't consume electricity indefinitely at low cost. The electricity imported by EPS varies from 20 megawatt hours to hundreds of megawatt hours on a daily basis, depending on conditions. The price paid by industrial consumers is now 75 euros per megawatt hour, which is lower than the price of EPS imports.
Despotovic argues that the price of commercial electricity must rise, partly paid by the state and partly by merchants. He sees the approval as a boon for EPS, which began importing coal before the end of last year, as a normal response to setbacks in domestic coal mining. If electricity prices do not rise, the state will pay more for electricity imports and further destroy water and coal resources. Despotovic also cautioned that Serbia's economic development has not been accompanied by the construction of new EPS capacity, for example, the hydropower industry in Serbia has been static for 30 years.
Despotovic points out that electric heating and cooling are very cheap for citizens compared to other things, such as mobile phone bills. That's why citizens have not felt any pressure to save electricity or water over the past two decades. There is a need for systematic studies on the use of existing power capacity in Serbia, including plant maintenance, overhaul and construction. It is necessary to repair all the faults in the thermal power sector and upgrade the technical level, and there is still work to be done in the water and power sector. Renewable energy is the perfect icing on the cake, and as much solar and wind power as possible should be used to replenish power reserves.
The pg cable industry background
industry background Wire and cable are widely used in all departments of the national economy, which is the fundamental guarantee for the regular operation of the modern economy and society. The development level of the wire and cable industry is also a symbol and epitome of a country's manufacturing level. Europe, America and Japan, such as developed countries, early industrialization at the end of the 20th century, have formed a mature cable industry chain . Contributed to most of the global pg cable capacity and demand at that time, still occupied an important position in the worldwide supply and marketing, leading the industry's development and monopolizing the global high-end market.
1. The slowing growth of global pg cable demand has accelerated under the epidemic situation
According to the use scenario, the commonly used international pg cable divide into two categories indoors and outdoor. Outdoor pg cable due to wind and snow and environmental climate, working conditions, so its structure is more complex. Indoor pg cable working conditions are better and do not need a waterproof device. The cable core can directly connect with equipment. At present, indoor and outdoor pg cable for 10KV and below and outdoor cables sometimes use metal pg cable . According to data released by CRU, in 2021, global demand for metal pg cable (conductor weight) slowed significantly due to weak demand in China, with 19 million tons in 2021, up nearly 1% year on year. CRU reported in December 2022 that the global market for pg cable except in China would shrink by almost double digits in 2021 due to the impact of the pandemic.While market demand is recovering, early weakness will drive double-digit declines in multiple regions in 2021. As a result, the global need for insulated metal pg cable will shrink by about 5% -6% yearly. According to preliminary estimates, the global demand for metal-insulated wires and cables will fall to 17.86 million tons in 2022.
2. The outbreak has led to lower demand for pg cable , and The size of the global market is gradually shrinking
The wire and cable market size are above 20 billion dollars as one of the most important manufacturing industries globally. From 2018 to 2021, the market size of the global wire and cable industry generally showed a trend of fluctuation. According to the data released by CRU, the market size of the international metal cable industry was $161 billion in 2019.Up slightly to $172 billion in 2020. The global market size fell slightly to $164 billion in 2021 due to falling demand in China. According to preliminary estimates, the global metal pg cable market in 2022 was affected by the epidemic, shrinking demand, with market size of $152 billion.
3. The market share of pg cable in the Asia-Pacific region gradually expanded, and the other areas began to shrink
In recent years, the economic growth of emerging countries and other Asian countries has been fast. The production focus of the world wire and cable production has shifted to Asia, which has driven the rapid development of the wire and cable industry in China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Egypt in the Middle East.According to the report released by the CRU, the outbreak in 2021 led to different effects on the world's other parts except for China. Combined with multiple market data, we summarize the overall development of the power cable industry in the global scope. Manifested by the rapid rise in Asia, the slight decline in America, and the unstable growth in Europe in recent years, which is greatly affected by economic and political factors. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for about 49% of global consumption, while Europe and the Americas account for 15% and 10%.
4. The pg cable market in Europe, America and Japan is relatively mature, with a high concentration degree
After years of developing the wire and cable industry in developed countries, especially in the face of fluctuations in raw material prices, small enterprises gradually withdrew from the market, and the industrial concentration increased significantly. The top 10 American cable manufacturers (GM, Best, Corning, South, etc.) occupy about 70% of the market share. Seven Japanese cable enterprises (such as Wuhe, Sumitomo, Tengcang, Hitachi, Showa, etc.) account for more than 65% of the market share. Five French cable enterprises (Nexan, etc.) occupy the French market turnover, occupying more than 90% of the French market share. And China's entire wire and cable industry concentration is deficient. CR10 is 17.7%.
5. Emerging markets in pg cable have increased significantly
In 2021, the global pg cable market was in turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As the global economy recovers, China invests in new energy and infrastructure construction, and the global pg cable market is expected to recover in 2021. The global metal pg cable market will rebound to $180 billion in 2022.However, in the medium term, the global wire and cable industry will return to healthy growth, driven by government and private investment, after the end of COVID-19 but slowing slightly from the previous five years. Among them, represented by Africa and Southeast Asia, the rapid development of emerging market economies will accelerate their construction, infrastructure, utilities, and industrial development activities. These activities will provide the substantial upward potential for emerging market wire and cable demand. Emerging market demand growth will continue to support the recovery and growth of global demand.
According to the CRU forecast, after 2023, the international wire and cable industry market demand will recover to the level of 2019. The international wire and cable market is expected to expand at an annual growth rate of 5% from 2022 to 2026. The global pg cable industry market will reach $230 billion in 2026.
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